27 Novembre 2012

The government notes the positive assessment of the OCDE, in particular for what concerns the budgetary consolidation and reform efforts and the confirmation that Italy will reach a structural fiscal balance in 2013 and 2014, as undertaken by this government and required by EU rules.

Together with the support to economic activity this means Italy has “been able to avert downside tail risks so far”, in other words a vicious spiral between austerity and recession. It also notes, as does the OECD, that “employment has stayed remarkably robust so far”, and that the unemployment rate has increased mostly because more people, women in particular, are coming into the labour market.

The main difference between the OECD’s forecasts and those of other institutions, including the November 7 European Commission forecasts, appears to reside with the evolution of gross fixed investment next year, which the OECD sees at -5.1 % versus -2.1% for the Commission and 0.1% in the updated Economic and Financial Document.

The government believes investment will be supported by external demand and the stabilization of the financial markets as well as the progressive increase in foreign capital. Italian companies are doing very well in world markets and this government’s work to ensure a credible path to resolve the euro area crisis and remove market uncertainty about the euro itself, will progressively normalize credit supply and costs as is already visible in the lower financing costs of the Republic.